UK House Prices Rise 3.8% Annually in April 2026, But a Base Effect Masks a Softening Market

The UK House Price Index for April 2026, published by HM Land Registry on 17 June, recorded another month of headline growth. Yet the detail beneath the figures points to a market that is losing momentum rather than gaining it, with the official statisticians cautioning that the apparent acceleration owes more to last year's distorted comparison than to renewed strength in demand. ## What the latest figures show

According to the official release, the April data shows that average UK house prices increased modestly over the month, with a larger annual change taking the typical property to a new headline value.

Across the nations, the picture remains uneven, with England outpacing the UK average while London continued its run of annual declines.

• • Average UK property value of £270,000 in April 2026, up 0.7% on March and 3.8% over the year.
• • England up 3.9% to £291,000; Wales up 3.5% to £212,000; Scotland up 2.8% to £192,000.
• • London down 2.1% over the year, from £565,000 to £553,000.

Higher borrowing costs and weaker sentiment will weigh on demand through the remainder of 2026.

Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research, Savills, 2026

Why the annual figure overstates the trend

The Office for National Statistics has been explicit that the jump in the annual rate is, in large part, a statistical artefact. The annual rate increased because average UK house prices saw a modest monthly rise (0.7%) between March and April 2026, while there was a large monthly fall (negative 2.9%) in the same period a year ago, a pattern the ONS describes as a base effect.

That earlier fall coincided with changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax in England and Northern Ireland on 1 April 2025, which pulled transactions forward and depressed prices immediately afterwards. Stripping out that distortion, the underlying trend looks considerably flatter, a reading reinforced by the lender indices: Halifax and Nationwide reported annual growth of just 0.5% and 1.7% respectively in the year to May 2026, with both recording monthly declines.

A more cautious outlook for the rest of 2026

The major research houses have moved in the same direction. Savills cut its 2026 forecast from positive 2% to negative 2%, citing higher borrowing costs and weaker sentiment weighing on demand, set against elevated stock as some landlords sell up ahead of tighter regulation.

Knight Frank has likewise trimmed its expectations, pointing to a fall in transactions of 3% between March and April at a time of year when activity would normally build, and warning that domestic political risk around the autumn Budget could squeeze prices further over the summer. Both note that affordability is less stretched than in 2022 and that the widespread use of fixed-rate mortgages keeps the risk of forced sales low.

Taken together, the April index and the revised forecasts describe a market that is steadier than its headline number suggests, with a clear north to south divide and a softer second half in prospect. For those tracking the sector, the lesson is to read past the annual percentage and look to the monthly and regional detail. Silkwood will continue to monitor the official data as the May index lands on 22 July.

Sources

• • HM Land Registry, UK House Price Index for April 2026 (GOV.UK)
• • ONS, Private rent and house prices, UK: June 2026
• • Savills, UK Housing Market Update, June 2026
• • Estate Agent Today, Savills and Knight Frank issue warnings of housing market falls